The Economist warns that a "wave of technological disruption to the job market has only just started," where machines "will have a powerful effect on middle-class jobs in the private sector too."
Why be worried? It is partly just a matter of history repeating itself. In the early part of the Industrial Revolution the rewards of increasing productivity went disproportionately to capital; later on, labour reaped most of the benefits. The pattern today is similar. The prosperity unleashed by the digital revolution has gone overwhelmingly to the owners of capital and the highest-skilled workers. Over the past three decades, labour’s share of output has shrunk globally from 64% to 59%. Meanwhile, the share of income going to the top 1% in America has risen from around 9% in the 1970s to 22% today. Unemployment is at alarming levels in much of the rich world, and not just for cyclical reasons. In 2000, 65% of working-age Americans were in work; since then the proportion has fallen, during good years as well as bad, to the current level of 59%.
Worse, it seems likely that this wave of technological disruption to the job market has only just started. From driverless cars to clever household gadgets (see article), innovations that already exist could destroy swathes of jobs that have hitherto been untouched. The public sector is one obvious target: it has proved singularly resistant to tech-driven reinvention. But the step change in what computers can do will have a powerful effect on middle-class jobs in the private sector too.
Since reportedly "nearly half of American jobs" today could be automated in "a decade or two," The Atlantic's Derek Thompson looks at which half this means:
Indeed, Frey and Osborne project that the next wave of computer progress will continue to shred human work where it already has: manufacturing, administrative support, retail, and transportation. Most remaining factory jobs are "likely to diminish over the next decades," they write. Cashiers, counter clerks, and telemarketers are similarly endangered. [...]
And, for the nitty-gritty breakdown, here's a chart of the ten jobs with a 99-percent likelihood of being replaced by machines and software. They are mostly routine-based jobs (telemarketing, sewing) and work that can be solved by smart algorithms (tax preparation, data entry keyers, and insurance underwriters). At the bottom, I've also listed the dozen jobs they consider least likely to be automated. Health care workers, people entrusted with our safety, and management positions dominate the list.
|History Repeats Itself: How the 1% Will Self-Destruct|
|"If the world ends, getting contacts or glasses is going to be a huge pain in the ass."|
|“The system takes a lot of friction out of interactions between customers and employees.”|
|How Hyperinflation Will Happen|
|Chaotic Moon Labs' Board of Awesomeness: a Motorized Kinect Controlled Longboard|
|“Social media is the publisher, not just the postman.”|
|“Bulgaria is hemorrhaging citizens at a rate of 164 per day.”|
|What Nothing Really Means in Seinfeld|
|How to Make a Cheesecake that Looks Like Cheese|
|iPhone 6, the First Smartphone to Disrupt NSA's Spying|
|CaptchaTweet: Write Tweets in Captcha Form|
|The (Very Scary) People of Public Transit|
|How to Avoid Jury Duty|
|Fake Name Generator|
|“How easy it is for anyone who tracks our digital activities to gain insight into our personalities.”|
|“Featuring over 2,000 flags in motion to Ludwig van Beethoven.”|
|U.S.S. Enterprise Owner's Manual|