If You Were on the FBI's Ten Most Wanted List, You'd Survive About 613 Days


Sat, Mar 15th, 2014 11:00 by capnasty NEWS

On @statwonk, a website dedicated to “data science, statistics and applications,” data scientist Christopher estimates that if you were just added to the FBI’s ten most wanted list, you’d survive for about 613 days (with a 50-50 shot you’ll be caught within 2.7 months).

The FBI’s Ten Most Wanted Fugitives List has publicized America’s deadliest criminals for nearly 65 years, since March 14th, 1950. The list is available nearly everywhere, from America’s post offices to the streets of Venezuela, criminals have been noticed and captured. The list makes life difficult for fugitives and some end up collaborating with the FBI as criminal informants. In other cases, the FBI has removed fugitives when charges were dismissed or the critera for being on the list was not met (in their eyes).

The list is interesting to me because it’s all about durations.

  • How long will a fugitive remain free once they’re added to the list?
  • How does our risk of getting captured change over time after being added to the list?
  • What’s the probability that we’re caught over the next week, two weeks, year after being added to the list?



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